(The screenshot above is from the Chart of new infections in file Cv19DailyModel-ADW01.xlsx)

My (InQA Limited and before that Watson Wyatt) colleague Professor David Wilkie has produced an Excel model to help actuaries and any one else who is interested model the possible spread of #Covid-19, and has asked me to put the files here so that they are readily available without anyone having to log in to Linked In or another platform. The model is in Excel so that the parameters can be readily altered.

Model description

David writes:

I have produced a daily version in one Excel worksheet.  I attach my description of the model (Cv19DailyModel_V2.1.docx), the accompanying basic Excel (Cv19DailyModel_V2.xlsx), my own trials on the UK data (Cv19DailyModel-ADW01.xlsx) and a file of data extracted from the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) website and processed into a tidy form (COVID19-Countries-2020-03-24.xlsx).  Note that ECDC is a day different from the UK.  The latest data in their file is dated 24 March, but published in the UK on 23 March, so is really perhaps cases and deaths noted on 22 March.

Make use of this if you wish, and pass it on to anyone that might be interested. My actuarial approach seems different from the epidemiologists, but I don’t have the mathematics of their model available.  It is easy to recalibrate for any other country.

David Wilkie

contact: david.wilkie@inqa.com

Please note the final paragraph of David's paper describing the model:

I must emphasise that I am not making specific forecasts.  I am providing a tool that allows others to try out the results of hypothetical changes in what seem to me to be a plausible set of initial assumptions.  If I made it much more realistic by stratifying the population by age, the model would need a full programme, which would be much harder for people to play with.  Those who are happy changing the Excel may modify it as they wish.  Others may just try altering certain values.  My only request is that you recognise the authorship, and do not try copywriting it yourself to prevent others using it.

Copyright A D Wilkie

24 March 2020

Model files

The files (see David's note above for what each file does; you can also check each file for integrity - namely that it hasn't been modified via its MD5 checksum, see http://onlinemd5.com/ for example) are: 

Cv19DailyModel_V2.1.docx 

(MD5checksum: 99836539D23ADF0B42DBB957815EB145)

Cv19DailyModel-V2.xlsx (MD5 checksum:  F912ABCCF9B8BB16D595220F0A965CB9)

Cv19DailyModel-ADW01.xlsx (MD5 checksum: EC6F4275ADC157B18DA8FD89FA18A46F) and

COVID19-Countries-2020-03-24.xlsx (MD5 checksum: 905F671BEB769D8F2A0D24C63D16256A)