David Wilkie has just published a new version (4.0) of his model for the Covid19 virus, it is available under the 10 April 2020 entry on https://davidwilkieworks.wordpress.com/coronavirus-covid-19/ . This version allows longer delays between infection, symptoms appearing, cases being reporting, and deaths.

There is no perfect model, and it seems clear that there is still a lot of uncertainty about how long the Covid-19 virus is infectious for, how long carriers can be both asymptomatic and contagious. The UK government seem to be expecting the current epidemic to peak within a couple ...

For those unable or unwilling to log in to Linked In, here are recent bulletins published by the group to in our collective battle to make sense of and overcome the Covid-19 pandemic: Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group Bulletin 4: UK is not like China! (30 Mar 2020) Covid-19 Actuaries Response ...

David Wilkie now has his own website, where further updates on his model will be posted, including the latest: a version 3 which tries to allow for the effect of changes in social distancing policy, see here .

For those who are not comfortable with downloading and manipulating Excel files, I have written a web version of version 2.1 of D avid Wilkie's model (the slightly earlier version than the 2.2 version published yesterday) for #Covid19. Click here to use the web model. It is not as flexible ...

Further to previous posts, here are files for an updated version (2.2) of David Wilkie's model for #Covid19: David writes: I am an actuary, quite familiar with epidemiological models, which can be used in income protection insurance (IPI), which many doctors/GPs will be familiar with. Using the IPI methodology I ...

For those unable to not wanting to log in to LinkedIn, Bulletin 3 from the Covid-19 Actuaries' Response Group can be downloaded from here .

For those who can't or don't want to login to Linked In to read this 2nd bulletin, entitled "Has over half of the UK population already been exposed to Covid19?", you can download it at the following link: https://cdn.buttercms.com/Jwr6tuX5T4lyG67ApjIU

My (InQA Limited and before that Watson Wyatt) colleague Professor David Wilkie has produced an Excel model to help actuaries and any one else who is interested model the possible spread of #Covid-19, and has asked me to put the files here so that they are readily available without anyone ...

Some people have asked to be able to read the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group's paper of 24 March 2020, written in response to the Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team's paper of 16 March, which is otherwise only accessible via logging in to LinkedIn. A copy may be downloaded from Download ...