The washing machine is leaking. There is a puddle on the kitchen floor. Beth is holding her phone, ready to call a repair person like a normal human being.

Patrick is on his hands and knees, examining the appliance with the focused scepticism of a claims assessor who has seen this sort of thing before. Is it genuinely broken? Or is it just having a bad day? These are different things, and they have very different reserving implications.

The Post-it note on the front reads "DOD: TBC — monitor." Patrick has seen appliances stage miraculous recoveries before. Premature settlement would be irresponsible.

Pucktick, for his part, has found the puddle and is perfectly happy.

The Actuaries in the Wild series follows actuarial thinking as it escapes the office and colonises everyday life — holidays, kitchens, birthday parties, and anywhere else a risk register has no business being. Previous entry: #8 Holiday Risk Assessment.

Previous cartoons: #1 Record Investment | #2 Y-Axis Trick | #3 Prompt Engineering | #4 Transparency Request | #5 Define Everyone | #6 Long-Term Assumption | #7 Excel Relapse | #8 Holiday Risk Assessment | #9 Confident Nonsense | #10 Nearly There | #11 Best Estimate